Transition
The boundary layer changes character from smooth, steady motion (laminar
flow) to turbulent motion with unsteadiness and eddies on a very small scale.
Several things may be responsible for the transition between these two states.
These include: surface roughness, adverse pressure gradients, and wing
sweep.
NASA TP 2256 contains flight data on the allowable surface roughness and
waviness for laminar flow. NACA TN 4363, A Simplified Method for Determination
of Critical Height of Distributed Roughness Particles for Boundary Layer
Transition, contains another discussion. A rule of thumb from Hoerner is
that a roughness element should be at least 25% of the boundary layer displacement
thickness to cause transition, although this depends on the form of the roughness elements.
Two-dimensional trips, such as tape strips must be much larger than 3-D trips.
Wing sweep also encourages transition through
the cross-flow instability. Some discussion appears in the above NASA TP,
but methods for predicting this are, in general, very complex. People often
run large computer codes that take quite some time to master and their results
are often questioned.
The usual reason for transition on airfoils is the presence of an adverse
pressure gradient. (Increasing Cp with x.) When this becomes severe enough,
or long enough, transition is likely to occur.
As a rule of thumb, boundary layers at high Reynolds numbers can withstand
very little adverse gradient and one may assume that once the gradient is
adverse transition will occur.
On a more quantitative basis, several transition criteria have been proposed
and are in wide use. These are empirically-based and work over a restricted
Reynolds number range. Two of the most popular are Michel's and Granville's
criteria. Michel's criteria states that transition will occur when the
Reynolds number based on momentum thickness exceeds a certain value which
depends on the local Reynolds number:

The relationship holds for Rex values between 105 and 40x106.
Unfortunately, in practice, the left side increases at about the same rate
as the right hand side, making the determination of the transition location
inaccurate. But when an adverse gradient exists, the left side grows much
more rapidly and transition is reasonably predicted. (Note that when gradients
are not large transition can be expected at values of Rex near 3 million.
This is very much a ballpark estimate, of course.)
A somewhat more refined approach to transition prediction involves an analysis
of the stability of the boundary layer equations to disturbances.
The basic ideas for this approach were described by Osborne Reynolds (of
Reynolds number fame) and Lord Rayleigh (of Rayleigh number fame). Their
hypothesis was that, above a critical Reynolds number, small disturbances
to the laminar boundary layer, are not damped by viscosity but rather amplified
until the laminar character of the flow disappears. One starts with the
unsteady Navier-Stokes equations and assumes that the unsteady terms are
very small and are written as a Fourier series with unknown coefficients.
Upon substitution of these equations into the unsteady part of the NS equations,
one obtains a 4th order, linear ODE, known as the Orr-Sommerfeld equation.
If the mean velocity profile and Reynolds number are specified, this leads
to an eigenvalue problem for each assumed value of a disturbance wavelength.
In 1957, A.M.O. Smith did several experiments to correlate the location
of transition with the value of the real part of this eigenvalue. He found
that transition generally occurred when the disturbances had grown by about
8000 times (e9) their value at the point of neutral stability.
This sort of linear stability theory (en method) is now routinely used
to estimate transition location with n between 9 and 11.